The Tax Burden on the Ukrainian Economy: Formation, Assessment and Forecasting

Abstract

The tax burden on the economy is an indicator of the efficiency of the tax system in the context of income redistribution in the national economy. The aim of the study is to improve the assessment and forecasting of the tax burden on the national economy of Ukraine. The main research methods are analysis and synthesis, comparative analysis, scientific abstraction, regression analysis, extrapolation and trend analysis, scenario analysis, and the graphical method. A methodology for assessing the tax burden on the national economy is proposed. A simulation of the dependence of consolidated budget tax revenues (direct relationship by linear function) and unified social contribution (direct relationship by power function) on the impact of GDP dynamics at actual prices was carried out. Pessimistic, realistic and optimistic scenarios for the tax burden on the Ukrainian economy have been developed. It has been shown that by the end of 2020 one-third of the revenues of Ukraine’s national economy are redistributed through the fiscal system, whereas in 2004 the tax burden was only one-fourth of GDP. It is established that the total tax burden on the national economy will remain at 2020 levels over the next 5 years (+0.2 %, depending on the projection scenario).