Public Debt of Ukraine Under the Conditions of Military Aggression: Challenges and Development Trends

Abstract

The article is devoted to the deepening and development of the scientific basis of the functioning of the state borrowing system in Ukraine, the identification of trends and factors influencing the growth of the state debt, and the search for ways to improve the debt policy in conditions of military aggression.

The coefficients of coordination, structural shifts and determination for the analysis of the state debt were calculated, a comparison was made with the threshold values, their role and significance in determining ways to improve Ukraine's debt security was revealed.

An assessment of the dynamics of the state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine in the national currency and US dollars is given, an analysis of the currency structure of state borrowings for the period 2009-2022 is carried out, with the aim of identifying risks for public finances due to the devaluation of the hryvnia and a significant increase in the size of the state debt, which creates problems with its maintenance.

The main reasons for the growth of the state debt, which caused an increase in the burden on the state budget, were determined, an assessment of the effectiveness of the government's use of methods and tools for managing the state debt was provided, and a forecast of payments for the state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine for 2023–2033 was developed according to current agreements.

It has been proven that the peak of public debt payments will already occur in 2024, which increases the risk of debt refinancing, creates additional pressure on the state budget and GDP, and accordingly reduces the amount of possible financing of the socio-economic sphere. The proposals regarding the improvement of the debt policy of Ukraine in the conditions of military aggression are substantiated.